Monday, March 20, 2023

Is this time to buy when Nifty 50 or equity markets are falling down? A view point with data evaluation - Nifty @16900


Write up on 20th March, 2023. 

Observe 2020 Nifty 50 PE on March 24, 2020 and Nifty 50 Index levels chart, and then what happened.

Now Observe Nifty 50 PE on March, 26, 2021, ust about a year hence, do remember there was a fall due to pandemic in March 2020.


Now the above chart as on 20th Marc, 2023 helps us compare Nifty 50 today and the Nifty 50 PE as well.

If history is to be understood and applied, this reflects Nifty 50 or how it is said "Markets" are neither cheap to jump in, nor too high to not look at it as value buy and it is termed as "fair value", and as we say one cannot time the market nor any levels, the conclusion is to enter with lumsum not more than 25% of the available amount kept aside as entry money or opportunity money with the right and suitable straty in mind and paper.


1- This is to share learnings on how valuations are and need to be seen and this is one of the factors and not the only decision maker comparison.

2- First question always to ask is "suitability" or "Made for me strategy"? and then such logic to be seen and applied

3- Here as an example Nifty 50 - largecap Index is considered and similarly there are more indices where valuation benchmarks change and there could be some Index or co. in Market that is steal buy, or value buy and some other which is still no buy or very costly buy, or even sell at the same levels, and hence a overall analysis is must.

Is this the kind of value add experienced financial planner adds? Is this right way to show ?

If your client asked you to take a sectoral call on say 'metals' about 3 months back, and you explained & resisted the clients urge, and parked the funds in liquid funds.

This was exactly asked by the client on 17th Jan, 2023, then explained and resusted the urge.

On top of it, what if the parked liquid funds have given 6% pa returns (meaning say 1.5% absolute returns roughly) and still the client asks, why only 6%.

How will you explain?

On top of it, how will you explain that this liquid money is now available as opportunity money to enter at lower levels and generate better than average returns?

How will you explain?

#financialplanning #financialplanner #financialfreedom #financialliteracy #mutualfund #couplegoal #travelplan #traveldiaries #travelgoals #wfh #wfo #cfppro

Nifty Metal Index change between 17th Jan, 2023 and 20th March, 2023. (On 17th Jan, Metal Index was 6779 and today i.e. 20th March, 2023, the metals Index is @5475. (A downside saved of about 1300 points or about 19.23% fall saved) 

The gain impact is 19.23% in absolute terms PLUS 1.5% earned from parking the funds in Liquid funds and hence the tentative gain is 20.73% in just 3 months. (Is that how the value of a financial planner shown?) 

Below is Nifty Metals Index as on, 20th March, 2023, Monday

Below is Nifty Metal Index as on 17th January, 2023

Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Financial Planning For Newly Married Couples - CNBC Bajar, Money Manager, CFP CM Viresh Patel

'Financial Planning for just married couples' - did this show yesterday with CNBC Bajar, Money Manager, a topic very close to my heart.

Do share your feedback and comment what you didn't like about it.

#financialplanning #marriedlife #justmarried #financialfreedom #financialplanner #mutualfund #cnbc #couplegoals #travel #personalfinance #cashflowmanagement

Click on Link below to watch the Live show. 

Financial Planning For Newly Married Couples - CNBC Bajar - Money Manager - Preeti Dalal, By CFP CM Viresh Patel 

@youtube #google @google #cnbcbajar 

Tuesday, March 07, 2023

Why Investing in Government bond funds is recommended, especially now? Data backed with example from the past.

I missed the data shared at end of the article when I was with friends, to back why I am confident to recommend to invest in government bond funds currently.

The Background-

                                                                  Above photo Creator: Javier Sanchez Mingorance Credit: 123RF

We were a group of friends and it so happened that somehow we came to discussing which bank is giving high interest rates and why it is good to lock in FDs now for long term- as interest rates are currently near top and very less room of rising higher and then it should stabalise and start going down after some time. I suggested to invest in long term government bond funds and this opened a pandora's box and a superb discussion full of arguments.

Guess what, this discussion went on for 35 to 40 minutes. Here's what was covered.

To question me someone quickly googled and shared this to the group-

"Fds are currently offering better and higher interest rates than they were about a year back. In early 2022 the 1 year Fixed Deposit rate was about 5.35% and currently SBI is offering 1 year deposit rate @7.3% roughly. So in one year there is about 2% higher fixed deposit rate offered. Why should I not invest in FDs?"

Quickly another friend went to one of the most used and popular Mutual Fund comparison site and shared the below-

He said, "compare this FD rates with 10 year government bond mutual fund Investment return and average category return is just about 4% in last 1 year- my friend was laughing just about savings bank rate? and you are saying to invest in government bond funds? Even in last 3 years the average returns have been 5.2% pa"

Do you still say to invest in government bond fund offered by a mutual fund?

"Yes, I said. Imagine you locked your 1 year FD @7.3% and next month RBI increases rates by another 0.50 basis points or %. Naturally the new FD rates will rise to 7.75% roughly. Now imagine if this FDs are tradable in market. What will you do?"

"I will sell my 7.3% FD and buy 7.75% FD"- said another friend.

"And, what if now after 3 months RBI reduces the rate by 0.5%? What will have higher demand, 7.3% FD or 7.75% FD?"

"Naturally, 7.75% FD"- immediately came the reply.

"That is where the demand for 7.75% keep increasing at every rate reduction and hence the price of the same FD keeps increasing for some time. This is where interest keeps coming for same 7.75% to the buyer and capital gain happens because of price increase of that FD due to higher demand in reducing interest rate cycle"- I explained.

Now you tell me what do you think, how much interest rates can up more? What do you think can RBI increase interest rates more?, if yes, how much?

And that is where my friends said we understood this but we need data to get convinced on what you are saying.

AND that is where I started this article by saying "I missed the data I am sharing at end of this article, or else, friends would have walked out with full confidence and clarity"

So here's the back data, friends.

Here we have picked up data from 2018, January and tracked this until 31-12-2020 to see similar situation what happens and why I remain so convinced and confident.

Below is just 2 year yield curve of 10 year government bond starting 1st January 2018 until 1st January 2020.

It is apparently clear that the yield curve is clearly downward. (Similar to our example of FD rates reducing for simplicity)

Now look at below reference table for more clarity.

                 (Above image is research data by CFP CM Viresh Patel, Financial North and any reproduction or reuse of the image or data is strictly prohibited)

The above reference table is divided in 2 parts.

EXTREME RIGHT TABLE- Rate cycle for 3 years starting 1-1-2018 until 31-12-2020. If you see that table, the yield as on 1-1-2018 was around 7.43 (Accidently that is exactly where current 10 year G sec yield is) and by end of 2020 the yield had fell to 5.89%.

NOW, LOOK at LEFT SIDE TABLE- At the same time period, i.e. starting 1-1-2018 the NAV of SBI MAGNUM GILT Fund was 38.0079 and by the end of sample period i.e. 31-12-2020 the NAV rise to 50.4745 and the 3 year average returns on the same fund was about 10% pa. (look at the % changes in NAV Column every year period.The change in 2018 was 5.07%, in 2019 was stunning 13.36% and in 2020 was 11.43%).

This is exactly what I said when I explained with the example of FD @7.75% and it's increased demand in reducing rate cycle.

Also, please be mindful that while my friend extracted data of past 1 year returns from GILT / long term government bond funds, he was comparing it with current FD rates.

Where do you think we are currently?

How much can RBI increase more?

What will RBI do in it's next RBI Monetary policy- Increase rate, take a pause or reduce rate?

Is there chance of rate increase more or you see rate reducing coming?

Do you also now concur with my call on investing in Government Bond or G-sec or GILT Funds, offered by mutual funds? Do you agree ?

What do you need more, my friend/s?

Do Comment.

This is for private circulation only.

Any details or data or image usage in part or full from this article needs to be with prior permission of the blogger of this original article by CFP CM Viresh Patel, Founder Financial North.

Clarity and Disclaimer-

A- This is not a Investment advisory for all and may or may not suit the general reader, and that is the reason it is only for private circulation only and no further claims on basis of this article will be entertained and in no way guarantee any returns and neither it needs to be concluded that returns in past will or can be replicated.

B- SBI Magnum GILT Fund is take here for example and within Debt category there are min.16 categories and more than 40 AMCs and it may or may not suit you.It is taken only for example and representation purpose and that it in no way should be understood as a recommendation, nor any tip etc.

PS- Indian Government bond yields as on 10-3-23, (various periods)

Very Recent Example to Understand this better from US Government Bonds and Treasury Yield very recent changes- 13-3-23

PIMCO Extended Duration Fund - 5 Day change - 5.37% up

Vanguard Longterm Treasury Fund - 1 day 3.14% up

US Bond Yields today as on 13-3-23

    US Bond Yields as on 9-3-23         

So Just in 5 days, the yields went down a lot and that  is where the longterm Bond Funds gave 3% in one day and 5% in 5 days returns, which was negative 24% in last year.- Vanguard fund, as the interest rates went up very high and in short period.

India Government Bond Yield Changes and it's effect on SBI Magnum GILT FUND- (1 month comparision)

SBI Magnum GILT Fund 1 month Changes as on 20-3-23 (Last NAV 17-3-23)

10 Year Government Bond Yield changes in 1 month (as on 20-3-23)

Monday, March 06, 2023

How to and does your Mutual Fund Advisor Evaluation ? comment

In the last 5 years the number of Mutual Fund investors, number of mutual fund folios and amount invested in mutual funds have increased by a lot. (more than double)

A lot of you have invested thru' either direct or regular mode after consulting advisor/s.

How is your comfort and confidence in the knowledge and service of your mutual fund advisor?

Mark 2 parts and total 4 words under evaluation for you, before reaponding.


_Comfort (personal skill)
_Confidence (technical skill)

_Knowledge (understanding, alerts on changes, actions to change scheme or amount, sharing of knowledge with you)
_Service (transparency, trust, intent, reaching out, reviews and updates etc)

#feedback #mutualfund #mutualfunds #mutualfundsahihain #mutualfundsahihai #financialfreedom #financialplanning #financialplanner #investing #personalfinance #linkedin #comment #linkedinpoll #consulting

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Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Recent Credit Card spend data and what does it mean for you ? (word of caution?)

Monthly Credit Card spend is @1.28  lac crs via

60% ecommerce
38% Point of Sales

as per data released by RBI of January, 23.

Total Credit cards issued stand around  8.2 crs.

HDFC is by far the largest used Credit card, in volume of transactions and value terms.

What does this mean?

In October, 22 (note diwali spend), the value was highest in a year -1.29 cr. and  now 1.28 cr.

What could be the reason for such high figures?

Does inflation and rise im EMI due to interest rate increase put pressure on cashflows and has increased this Credit Card spend?

What is your observation for yourself and your dear ones?

Kirtan A Shah
Sahil Kapoor
Anshul Gupta
Ashish Singodia
Priyanka Acharya
Pravin Shetty
Divyashikha Gupta
Abhishek Kulkarni
Archy Gupta
Ruparanjan Mohapatra
Nayan Bheda
Jesse J
Ashish Jhanjee
CA Ashish M Chandak
CA. Anand Lunkar

I have also come across some, doing SIPs payments via credit cards.

#creditcards #cashflow #familybudget #expenses #financialplanning #financialfreedom #emergencyfund #financialplanner #personalfinance #mutualfund #sip

Is this a sign of on ground liquidity / cashflow mismatch for family's ?

#ecommerce #payments #data

Image Credit -

financial express 

Saturday, February 25, 2023

What do you do as a Fixed fee only Financial Planning expert?

You must be thinking what we do for our clients?

If you are thinking of starting to invest or already #investing through multiple financial agents and advisors, but have always been thinking about are my Investments 'right', do I need some changes?

Well that's what we do -

We help our clients
1- Start Right,
2- Set Right
3- Keep right

while you may continue working with the same agent or advisor.

We become one point contact for all client family's on anything related to financial life, including investments, taxes, insurances, loans, banking, and most important family needs.

We work with clients irrespective of their income scale, savings or investment size.

#investment #financialplanning #financialfreedom #financialplanner #financialliteracy #personafinance
#mutualfund #professional #cashflowmanagement #retirementplanning #investmentplanning #equity #taxes #banking

Wednesday, January 04, 2023

What should you do as an investor, who follows experts, very confusing? - and Solution inside

If you are an avid reader and track #financialexperts (India and worldwide), you must be getting mixed signals -

_ #nasdaq should do better and value seems emerging

_ #India is the place to invest and emerging leader for decade

_ #emergingmarkets should do better

_ #fixedincome assets are place to invest in 2023 for safety and growth

_ #financialservices or #bfsi should do better on basis of credit growth

_ #gold and #china looks better from 1 to 3 year perspective

_in last 10 years #valueinvesting has outperformed

_ #recession is sure to hit and H1 of 2023 is going to experience it and from H2 of 2023 it may reverse. No economy and market can say we will not be impacted, but #India and #china should stand out.

_China should be badly hit economy, for larger part of 2023 and political unrest may carry it to next year as well

_there's a tactical #geopolitical shift, which has longterm positive impact on #eurasia

Very much mixed signals.
I am even saying what if inflation is here to stay for full 2023?

The only #solution is find your #suitability and start or continue investing accordingly.

#financialplanning #financialplanner #financialfreedom #investingforbeginners #couplegoals #mutualfund #emergingmarkets #investing #personalfinance

All the above views are from where I have read from various sources, including #linkedin experts posts, #morganstanley / #imf /#goldmansachs and similar reports.

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